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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd