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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence receives the prize. However, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or just the most shocking shock.

However this year's field is profoundly different. The group of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and recent strugglers improving in unison. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still