Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
